Cody Hall

What I'm reading, writing, and thinking about.

What I’m Crunching — July 6, 2025

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Books I’m Reading

The Alloy of Law

After finishing the Mistborn trilogy by Sanderson I had to try out this first of a sequel series that’s set in the same world. It takes place roughly 300 years after the events of the last Mistborn book, The Hero of Ages. I’m thoroughly enjoying it so far.

From the Goodreads summary:

Three hundred years after the events of the Mistborn trilogy, Scadrial is now on the verge of modernity, with railroads to supplement the canals, electric lighting in the streets and the homes of the wealthy, and the first steel-framed skyscrapers racing for the clouds.

Kelsier, Vin, Elend, Sazed, Spook, and the rest are now part of history—or religion. Yet even as science and technology are reaching new heights, the old magics of Allomancy and Feruchemy continue to play a role in this reborn world. Out in the frontier lands known as the Roughs, they are crucial tools for the brave men and women attempting to establish order and justice.

One such is Waxillium Ladrian, a rare Twinborn who can Push on metals with his Allomancy and use Feruchemy to become lighter or heavier at will.

After twenty years in the Roughs, Wax has been forced by family tragedy to return to the metropolis of Elendel. Now he must reluctantly put away his guns and assume the duties and dignity incumbent upon the head of a noble house. Or so he thinks, until he learns the hard way that the mansions and elegant tree-lined streets of the city can be even more dangerous than the dusty plains of the Roughs.

Video I’m Watching

Lyn Alden’s Broken Money thesis in under 50 minutes:

On Bitcoin (Cycles)

If you know much about Bitcoin, you’re familiar with the “halving.” This is the once-every-four-years preprogrammed 50% reduction in the block reward issued to miners after each new block of transactions are produced (approx. every 10 minutes).

This four-year cycle has produced the predictable booms and busts in the Bitcoin price since the creation of Bitcoin in 2009.

There’s an ongoing debate between the “cycles are dead” crowd on one side and the “cycles won’t go away” crowd on the other side.

There are valid reasons to believe cycles will remain:

  • Human nature won’t change. Greed and FOMO drive an increase in leverage leading to overleverage, which eventually drives price toward a “blow off top” and subsequent decline.
  • The halving of supply issuance creates a reduction of new supply as described above. If demand increases, remains the same, or even decreases slightly, price must increase, leading to the blow off tops characteristic of the cycles.
  • Bitcoin’s price is heavily correlated with global liquidity trends. Loose monetary conditions tend to fuel risk-on assets like Bitcoin, driving bull runs, while tightening triggers sell-offs. These bigger picture liquidity cycles will remain and will continue driving Bitcoin’s cyclical nature.

The cycles are dead side also has valid reasons:

  • Companies and nation states are now buying Bitcoin in increasing amounts. Only ~3,150 new bitcoins are entering the market weekly through block rewards. Companies alone are buying >10,000 bitcoins per week—nearly three times the weekly issuance. This represents a constant bid buying up any price dips.
  • More states in the USA and nations globally are announcing strategic Bitcoin reserves. These entities, again, represent a persistent bid beneath Bitcoin’s price dips.
  • As more countries and jurisdictions explore Bitcoin as legal tender or reserve asset, its role as a stable store of value grows. This shift reduces its sensitivity to speculative cycles.

Ultimately, as adoption is growing, Bitcoin’s volatility is decreasing. The four-year cycles are becoming more muted. This is to be expected.

My opinion is that the four-year cycles will dampen over time and eventually disappear.

Tweets I’m Reading

If you have feedback for me, if something resonates and you want to see more of it, reply in the comments below. You can also tweet at me on Twitter @the_cody_hall.

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